Tehran: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council is expected to decide whether to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route, following U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear facilities. While Iranian lawmakers have expressed support for the move, the final decision rests with the country’s top security body.
Iran has frequently warned of blocking the narrow maritime passage in times of crisis, but has never followed through. Now, amid escalating tensions with the United States and Israel, the idea has returned to the forefront of Iran’s strategic options.
“For now, [parliament has] come to the conclusion we should close the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision in this regard is the responsibility of the Supreme National Security Council,” said Esmail Kowsari, a Revolutionary Guards commander and senior member of the Iranian parliament’s national security commission.
Kowsari added that closing the strait “will be done whenever necessary.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, when pressed on the issue Sunday, said only, “A variety of options are available to Iran.”
The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran and links the Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. At its narrowest point, it is about 33 kilometers wide, but the navigable shipping lane is just 3 kilometers wide in each direction.
Roughly 20% of global oil and a significant portion of liquefied natural gas pass through this strategic waterway. Major oil producers including Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait rely on the strait to export energy, particularly to Asian markets.
Between 17.8 million and 20.8 million barrels of oil per day flowed through the strait between early 2022 and May 2025, according to estimates by energy analytics firm Vortexa.
Although Saudi Arabia and the UAE have developed alternative routes — such as the East-West pipeline and the Fujairah pipeline — these options can only handle a fraction of the total traffic through Hormuz.
The United States has warned Iran against such a move. “I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them [Iran] about that, because they heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News on Sunday. He added, “It would hurt other countries’ economies a lot worse than ours.”
According to experts, Iran could attempt to block the strait using mines, fast attack boats, or submarines. However, such action would likely trigger a swift military response from the U.S. and its allies, as the Fifth Fleet is stationed in nearby Bahrain.
Despite the serious implications, some analysts doubt that Iran would take such a drastic step. “Iran risks turning its oil and gas producing neighbours in the Gulf into enemies and invoking the ire of its key market China by disrupting traffic in the Strait,” said energy expert Vandana Hari.
Still, the risk of escalation remains high. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, both nations targeted oil tankers in the Gulf. More recently, there have been several seizures of vessels by Iranian forces in or near the strait, most in response to U.S. sanctions or ship seizures.
While Iran’s parliament appears to have reached a consensus, the ultimate decision may hinge on broader geopolitical calculations. If the strait were closed, analysts forecast that oil prices could surge by up to 80% in the first week, severely disrupting global energy markets and affecting major economies like China, India, and Japan.
As the region stands on edge, the world watches closely for what Iran’s Supreme National Security Council will decide in the coming days.